Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Lies, Damn Lies, and Opinion Polls

The American people are being absolutely inundates with polls claiming to predict litterally every possible outcome in the approaching elections. In the last week I've heard polls that support an overwelming Democratic victory, a marginal Democratic victory in one house or the other, a draw with maybe one or two seats changing hands, and an actual Republican gain in one house or the other.

Well, here's the problem with alot of these polls. THEY'RE NOT THE ELECTIONS!!! The average national opinion polls includes a sample of between 900 and 1,100 people. That's out of 300,000,000. Or, if you want to go by the '04 elections, that's out of more than 120,000,000 voters. That means that each poll is representative of .0009% of voters. Notice how far past the decimal the 9 is.

Now, before the libs who are reading this jump all over me I will say this. There are some polls that are more representative than others. But, there is one poll that the Democrats are absolutely loving. They have wet dreams about this poll. The congressional approval poll is currently in the teens (depending on which poll you look at). If the Congress was elected at the national level (that is everyone gets to vote on the congressmen), then the Republicans would be screwed. But you know what? Congressmen are elected at the district level! When was the last time the US Congress had a positive aproval rating? Probably before it was established back in the 1700's. How many jokes have we all heard about the US Congress and their inability to get anything done.

There are two kinds of polls that should be watched for these elections. First, the individual district polls. Which show a very close horse race across the board. Second, at the national level, pay attension to the question that asks for approval of your current congressman. The higher that number, the better news it is for party in power.

All politics are local guys! But most importabtly, no matter what your party affiliation, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!